NEW DELHI: Terror outfits from across the border are likely to leverage the hanging of Md Afzal Guru and the resulting resentment against Indian state in the Valley to revive militancy in Jammu & Kashmir. Indian security establishment, however, is not perturbed as it believes the sentiment for militancy among the youth in the Valley is dead and even the emotional connect of the Afzal issue is largely limited to the state's urban centres.
Intelligence agencies, however, believe there will be wide protests and stone pelting in the Valley in days to come with situation likely worsen coming Friday.
Outside the state, trouble is being anticipated from front organizations of the Maoist movement who, say sources, have been trying for the past few years to find a common cause with Kashmiri separatists to ramp up their political strength.
According to sources in the security establishment, outfits such as LeT, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed are likely to get a boost from the developments in Afghanistan where they are likely to find safe havens following drawdown of US forces from the region next year. With Pakistan becoming a major player in the region, the spillover from Af-Pak borders is likely to head towards the Valley aided and abetted by ISI. Given the resentment against Indian state over Afzal's hanging, these outfits might find the mood ripe for revival of militancy in the Valley, said sources.
Indian security agencies, however, say these attempts will not have a major impact as the Valley youth is looking to be part of the nation's growing economic boom and is practically tired of militancy, one of the reasons why it has been on the wane for the past one decade. "Youth in the Valley today want jobs and are looking at ways to make their life better. The rising aspirations of a young nation have caught on the imagination of Valley youth too. They are not going to pick up guns now," said an official from the security establishment.
The official also pointed out that the Afzal sentiment has been amplified, thanks to social media which restricted to urban centres in the Valley. For militancy to get some significant foothold, the sentiment has to capture the imagination of rural youth who have traditionally fed the outfits. "So there will be stone pelting and rabble rousing in urban centers but things will be back to normal after people have vented their anger," said the official.
Not surprisingly, except for general alerts of possible law and order disruptions within and outside the Valley, no specific terror alert has been issued by the Intelligence Bureau.
Politically too, sources said, the Omar Abdullah government may not face too much trouble save the initial few days as none of the political or separatist outfits have shown signs of leveraging the issue to create long-term problems and their reactions to the development have been largely moderate.
Afzal Guru's execution: Security agencies unfazed by likely spurt in J&K militancy
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Afzal Guru's execution: Security agencies unfazed by likely spurt in J&K militancy
