Update: Obama claim on background checks moved from ‘verdict pending' to 2 Pinocchios

(Larry Downing/Reuters)

“The law already requires licensed gun dealers to run background checks, and over the last 14 years that’s kept 1.5 million of the wrong people from getting their hands on a gun. But it’s hard to enforce that law when as many as 40 percent of all gun purchases are conducted without a background check.”

— President Obama, remarks on gun violence, Jan. 16, 2013

“Studies estimate that nearly 40 percent of all gun sales are made by private sellers who are exempt from this requirement.”

— “Now Is the Time: The president’s plan to protect our children and our communities by reducing gun violence,” released Jan. 16

Earlier this week, we gave this claim a “verdict pending.” We said we faced a bit of a conundrum because the 40 percent statistic was based on a single, relatively small survey of 251 people from nearly two decades ago — but that foes of gun control had made it difficult for further research to be conducted.

We also gave kudos to Vice President Biden for acknowledging that the statistic might not be accurate. So we said we would be watching carefully for how the statistic would be used by gun-control advocates in the future.

We also noted that the microdata used in the original survey could be accessed by researchers. A pair of readers, including John R. Lott Jr. (a noted skeptic of gun restrictions) downloaded the data and presented us with an Excel analysis to argue that the words used by the President and the White House—“gun purchases” and “gun sales” — were inaccurate. That’s because the original report on the survey, from which the statistic is derived, referred to “gun acquisitions” and “transactions” — much broader categories of data.

So we went back to Jens Ludwig, one of the original researchers. He patiently reran his data and explained how he and his colleague, Philip Cook, had reached their conclusions. We won’t get into the weeds of the discussion, but Lott and Ludwig looked at the data in different ways.

Part of the difference was that Ludwig and Cook looked across a variety of different answers in order to spot inconsistencies, rather than immediately assume the gun had been purchased from a licensed dealer, also known as the primary market. “Our approach with the rest of the cases (don’t know source of gun, refused to report source of gun) was to be conservative in estimating what fraction of sales are in the primary market,” Ludwig said.

Still, the data as presented in Ludwig and Cook’s 1996 report on the survey (see Table 3.14) did not give us enough information to test whether the president’s use of the words “gun purchases” was accurate. So Ludwig examined the data yet again at our request and came up with the following results:

Percent of Secondary (“off the books”) market purchases

Cash purchase from gun, hardware or department store, from pawnshop, or from seller at gun show, flea market or military, or through mail that respondent says “yes” was FFL [federally licensed dealer]: 22 percent

Add cash purchase from seller at gun show, flea market or military, or though the mail that respondent says “probably was/think so:” 20 percent

Add cash purchases, trades with family, friends/acquaintance that respondent says are or probably are FFL: 14 percent

In other words, rather than being 30 to 40 percent (the original estimate of the range) or “up to 40 percent” (Obama’s words), gun purchases without background checks amounted to 14 to 22 percent. And since the survey sample is so small, that means the results have a survey caveat: plus or minus six percentage points.

Moreover, as we noted before, the survey was taken in late 1994, eight months after the Brady law went into effect, and the questions were asked about gun purchases in the previous two years. So some of the answers concerned gun purchases that took place in a pre-Brady environment.

Ludwig noted that “if you look at where gun criminals obtained their guns (as indicated from surveys of people in prison or arrestees detained in jail), people have typically found that 80-90 percent of that population get their guns in the secondary market.” We referenced some of that data in our earlier column, and gun-control advocates might argue that it bolsters the need for universal background checks. But that is not the statistic used by Obama.

We can understand why the president might want to use a word like “purchases” rather than “transactions.” And certainly there is a pressing need for additional and up-to-date research on gun purchases in the secondary market. But that is no excuse for the president’s language, especially because the survey data is already nearly two decades old. (The White House declined to comment.)

So we are changing our ruling in this matter from “Verdict Pending” to Two Pinocchios.

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Polling Day commences for 31,600 voters in Punggol East

SINGAPORE: Punggol East residents will head to the polls on Friday, Polling Day, as Singapore marks its second by-election in eight months.

Some 31,600 voters in Singapore and 59 voters overseas will cast their votes in a four-cornered fight for the single member constituency (SMC).

The Punggol East single member seat fell vacant in December 2012 when former Speaker of Parliament and MP for the ward Michael Palmer resigned over an extramarital affair.

A writ of election was issued by President Tony Tan on 9 January 2013, declaring 16 January as Nomination Day and 26 January as Polling Day.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said at the announcement of the by-election that he wanted to give Punggol East residents their own MP in Parliament before Singapore focused back on its "busy national agenda". This includes the upcoming White Paper on population, the Budget 2013 debate and the Our Singapore Conversation project.

Voters issued with poll cards are reminded to bring their identity card or passport for verification at polling stations. Their poll card will indicate the polling station nearest to their home, at which they would cast their vote.

Polling stations will be open from 8am until 8pm.

The four candidates contesting the Punggol East by-election are Dr Koh Poh Koon from the People's Action Party, Mr Kenneth Jeyaretnam from the Reform Party, Mr Desmond Lim Bak Chuan from the Singapore Democratic Alliance and Ms Lee Li Lian from the Workers' Party.

Mr Lim and Ms Lee contested Punggol East SMC in the 2011 General Election but lost to PAP's Michael Palmer.

The Returning Officer for the by-election is Mr Yam Ah Mee.

Results are expected after 10pm on Friday.

A special by-election programme will be aired on Channel NewsAsia from 9pm Singapore/Hong Kong time.

- CNA/jc

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Jaipur Literature Festival shifts focus to cinema on second day

JAIPUR: The debate shifted from literature to cinema on the second day of the Jaipur Literature Festival on Friday.

Actor Shabana Azmi questioned the portrayal of women in films in a session on the subject. She called for a need for heroines to ''make an informed choice'' about the roles they play and the way they are portrayed. ''My problem is that the commoditization of women is, very often, happening at a subliminal level, without the women themselves understanding it.''

Lyricist Prasoon Joshi called for an urgent need to deconstruct the language and sexism implicit in the problematic portrayal of women. ``The women have to given the freedom to make choices... (and) not be forced into stereotypes of mother, working woman,'' he said. ''Just like it is unfair to portray a woman as someone who is always in the kitchen, it is equally unfair that a woman, who chooses to not work, is given the space and freedom to not work.''

He maintained that the filmmakers are conscious of their roles in shaping the society and said they are constantly making an effort to introspect and to balance the way men and women are projected.

Lyricist Javed Akhtar spoke about the interdependency of films and the society. He insisted that though there is immense scope for meaningful cinema, its viability remains a pressing concern.

''If you care for a Paan Singh Tomar ensure that the film makes Rs 200 crore profit at the box office and I can assure more such films can be made,'' he said while responding to question from the audience.

Akhtar pointed out that films are a reflection of the society and that heroes reflect it and its morality just like villains in the 1950s ``...the zamindar was the villain. It changed over the years to the corporate, industrialist, who was projected as the villain. Finally, by the 70's, the angry young man as the hero was a projection of a society disillusioned by its social context.''

He said the Indian audiences are now looking for films that entertain and are an opportunity to ''party''.

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5 Amazing Animal Navigators

A house cat named Holly, which made news this week for trekking nearly 200 miles (320 kilometers) back to her hometown, isn't the only supernavigator in the animal kingdom.

"Any animal that comes back to the right place after a long travel, or comes back to the same place again and again following a major movement, is amazing," said Martin Wikelski, a migration expert at the Max Planck Institute. (Read about great animal migrations in National Geographic magazine.)

Many animals have a built-in magnetic system, "like a regular compass," said Wikelski, who is also a National Geographic emerging explorer. (National Geographic News is part of the National Geographic Society.)

However, much is still unknown about how animals navigate—for instance, no one can explain Holly's incredible journey, the New York Times reported.

But more and more research is pointing to the role of smell in navigation, Wikelski noted.

"It's one of the most important mechanisms to tell you where you are and lead you home."

Wikelski told us about five impressive navigators that he believes push the limits of what's possible.

1. Eels. These long, bony fish make epic, mysterious treks across entire oceans. The European eel, for example, is born in European rivers but travels all the way to the Sargasso Sea (map), a distance of thousands of miles, to spawn. The baby eels then return to European rivers and, once it's time for them to spawn, follow their parents' path to very same place in the Sargasso Sea. "Nobody really knows how they do it," Wikelski said.

2. Bar-Tailed Godwit. This shorebird can fly in one go from its Alaska breeding grounds across the entire globe to New Zealand. In 2007, a female bar-tailed godwit got a feather in its cap for the longest nonstop bird migration ever measured—7,145 miles (11,500 kilometers) from Alaska to New Zealand. The bird completed the journey in just nine days, according to biologists who tracked the flight using satellite tags.

3. Blackpoll Warbler. This North American forest dweller has figured out an express way of getting to its winter refuge in Venezuela, Wikelski said. The bird fattens itself up before snagging a ride on a trade wind, sailing from the northeastern U.S. to South America in a hundred hours—entirely over the open ocean. "That's completely crazy," he said. On the way back home, the bird takes the more scenic route, stopping on land to rest and refuel.

4. Mexican Free-Tailed Bat. These flying mammals are common in Texas, where they form colonies in the millions. Wikelski, who was involved in a tracking study of the bats, discovered that they can fly up to 40 miles (70 kilometers) from their home caves in search of moths or mosquitoes. "At some point they turn around and … basically know how to find [their way] back," Wikelski said. Evidence suggests the animals use both landmarks and the smell of their fellow cave bats to point them home. (See bat videos.)

5. Sahara Desert Ant. These insects travel relatively long distances—up to 0.3 mile (0.5 kilometer)—from their central nest sites to search for food. Even though the ants run chaotically in many directions, they remember exactly how far they've gone by counting their steps, as well as navigating via polarized light patterns from the sun, Wikelski said. Finding their way back home is critical for these desert denizens—if they stay outside too long, they'll get fried in the sun.

These are just a sampling of incredible animals on the move. What other animal navigators have you observed? Tell us your stories in comments and we'll showcase the best ones.

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White House Makeover: McDonough to Chief of Staff

Jan 25, 2013 10:15am

Orlando Sierra/AFP/Getty Images

By ANN COMPTON and MARY BRUCE

President Obama is giving his West Wing team an extreme make-over for the second term, with the departure of top strategist David Plouffe and the naming of Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough to be his next chief of staff.

Once again, the President is keeping a comfort zone around him, promoting from within. He is plucking a favorite aide from his national security team to become the new White House Chief of Staff.  McDonough  has been a popular figure in the Obama inner circle since the Senate days.

McDonough was widely expected to become Obama’s fifth chief of staff as he replaces Jack Lew who has been nominated as Treasury Secretary.

“Welcome to the announcement of one of the worst kept secrets in Washington,” Obama joked as he announced McDonough’s new position in the East Room of the White House.

The president heaped praise on his longtime adviser and close friend, as McDonough stood beaming by his side.

“I have been counting on Denis for nearly a decade — since I first came to Washington, when he helped set up my Senate office,” Obama said. “He was able to show me where the restrooms were and how you passed a bill…  At that time, I relied on his intellect and his good judgment, and that has continued ever since.”

“I cannot imagine the White House without you.  Thank you for signing up for this very, very difficult job,” Obama said.  ”I know you’ll always give it to me straight, as only a friend can — telling me not only what I want to hear, but more importantly what I need to hear to make the best possible decisions on behalf of the American people.”

Plouffe’s departure from the tiny office next to the president’s makes room for strategist Dan Pfeiffer’s promotion to senior adviser.  Pfeiffer is a combative planner who has been orchestrating the administration’s message for the last four years.

“I thought I’d take the occasion to just embarrass somebody.  Some of you may know that today is David Plouffe’s last day in the White House,” Obama said to laughter from the audience comprised largely of White House staff.  ”I had to hide this in the end of my remarks because I knew he wouldn’t want me to bring it up.  So we had some secret squirrel stuff going on here to avoid him thinking that we were going to talk about him.”

“I can’t tell you how lucky I have been to have him manage our campaign back in 2008, then join the White House during these very challenging last two years.  He’s built a well-deserved reputation as being a numbers genius and a pretty tough combatant when it comes to politics,” he said. “Were it not for him, we would not have been as effective a White House and I probably wouldn’t be here.”

Pfeiffer’s deputy, Jennifer Palmieri, a long-time Democratic figure, moves up to communications director. Rob Nabors was a key figure in negotiating with Congress and he’s getting promoted to the top policy job in the West Wing’s chief of staff office.

From the Department of Justice, Lisa Monaco will come in as the new counter-terrorism adviser, taking John Brennan’s chair if he is confirmed as CIA Director.

The only other outsider coming into the West Wing is David Simas who worked on the re-election campaign. Simas will do communications.  There are no announced changes in Jay Carney’s press office.

SHOWS: World News

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Oil prices rise on strong economic indicators

NEW YORK: Oil prices jumped Thursday on greater economic optimism following strong economic indicators in the US, China and Europe.

A barrel of US benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures for delivery in March settled at US$95.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 72 cents.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for March delivery ended at US$113.28 a barrel, up 48 cents from Wednesday.

"The economic news from China looked pretty good and this is adding to ... reports suggesting that the global recession is nearing an end, and that is making people more bullish about oil demand," said Michael Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research.

Oil prices have steadily risen since mid-December, gaining more than 12 per cent since Dec. 10.

Figures from British bank HSBC showed China's manufacturing activity in January hitting a two-year high.

"China has been a main driver of oil demand growth for the last decade and (if there is) strong growth, that is a very bullish indicator for the market," said Lynch.

Also Thursday, US jobless claims came in well below expectations, an unexpectedly strong result for the second week in a row.

In Europe, a purchasing managers index, an indicator of manufacturing and services activity, in January reached its highest level in 10 months.

"It is too soon to call this the turn in the European economy, but some are bound to see it that way," said analyst Chris Low of FTN Financial.

The greater optimism came as weekly data from the US Department of Energy pointed to a larger build of oil stockpiles than expected.

The results showed a gain of 2.8 million barrels, whereas analysts had predicted an increase of 1.7 million barrels.

- AFP/jc

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Moral and secular ethics go beyond religious belief: Dalai Lama

JAIPUR: The Dalai Lama on Thursday called for adopting moral and secular ethics, which go beyond the religious belief. The Tibetan spiritual leader told a gathering on the opening day of the Jaipur Literature Festival that one might be a believer or a non-believer, but secular and moral ethics were very important.

He was in conversation with Pico Iyer in a session titled 'Kinships of Faiths: Finding the Middle Way', based largely on his latest book 'Beyond Religion: Ethics for a Whole World'.

"If you do not have interest (in religion), it's OK. Secular ethics are the most important," he said. "Secularism is the base of India's history, her constitution." Secularism did not mean disrespect to any religion, he said. "Accept all religions. Despite the obvious difference between religions and traditions, all religions preach the basic principles of love, faith, truth and trust."

Earlier in his talk, Dalai Lama drew similarities between science and philosophies of Buddha. "Science and Buddhism share the desire to analyze and investigate the truth. Buddha said 'never take my word, challenge it.' The Nalanda masters, whom I often refer to as skilled professors, are always investigating his teachings and have the liberty not accept a teaching if the literal meaning goes against logic," he said, adding that till date, he considered himself a student.

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US oil price slumps after pipeline cutback

NEW YORK: US crude oil prices closed sharply lower Wednesday, dragged down by news that a key pipeline had cut capacity due to a bottleneck.

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in March, tumbled US$1.45 from Tuesday's close to settle at US$95.23 a barrel.

In London trade, meanwhile, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in March settled at US$112.80 a barrel, an increase of 38 cents.

The New York market, which had been trading slightly lower for most of the session, dived after the operator of the Seaway pipeline told shippers that capacity had been reduced because of an unexpected problem at a delivery point.

"When that headline came out, the WTI immediately came under a significant amount of pressure," said Andy Lipow, an independent oil analyst.

The Seaway carries crude stocked in Cushing, Oklahoma, the main oil terminal in the world's biggest crude consumer, to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

Lacking sufficient pipeline capacity to bring oil to refineries, Cushing stockpiles have swollen recently to new record highs, weighing on futures prices.

Traders were keenly awaiting the US Department of Energy's latest weekly report on petroleum stockpiles. The data will be published Thursday, one day later than normal, due to a public holiday on Monday.

"Traders now expect upcoming US government oil inventory data to show crude-oil stocks dropped 2.3 million barrels last week," ETX Capital markets analyst Ishaq Siddiqi said.

Siddiqi said there had been a "bit of profit taking in crude following four sessions of gains, with many (traders) expecting refiners to start seasonal maintenance that will reduce crude oil demand."

- AFP/jc

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Aam aadmi asked to pick up tab for overhaul in emergency response system

NEW DELHI: Justice J S Verma Committee has recommended largescale changes in the government's emergency response system, but has put its financial burden on aam aadmi's pocket.

Calling into question the government's habit of announcing a new helpline every time some untoward incident happens, the Committee has recommended setting up of one central emergency response (ER) number for all exigencies, including crimes, fire or other disasters.

Interestingly, though, the burden of running this centralized system will be on the common man's telephone bill with additional charges being levied on h/his calls to fund this system.

The report says, "It is recommended that we have a one central ER number so that there is no burden on an average person on the street to remember different numbers for different kinds of ER situations. This is necessary in the context of India as a lot of our population is not adequately literate but they are telephony users...

"The need of the hour is to have a system that puts accountability of the emergency response on to the police and other ER services. The system should be auditable and have a public oversight to see its effectiveness and rectify the shortcomings of the system," it adds.

However, to maintain this system, it suggests: "A possible funding of this PERS (Public Emergency Response System) could come from a nominal surcharge on the existing and future telephony users thus not burdening the exchequer."

The committee has recommended setting up of one ER control centre for every geographical cell (such as metropolitan city) to respond to all emergency situations. It has asked for such systems to be put in place that forward the GPS location and address of the caller to the response team so that immediate help can be reached and prank caller be identified.

It has also asked for police patrol vans to be put under the control of these ER centres which themselves will function under the civilian administration. Other recommendations include making public call logs periodically for better accountability.

The panel has recommended presence of a counselor when the victim is interviewed by the police or medically examined to avoid compounding of her trauma.

It has asked the interviewer (read police) to be non-judgmental and not only avoid blaming the victim for the incident but also prevent her from blaming herself. It has also demanded of the counselor to help the family of the victim to understand that the incident is not the fault of the survivor.

It has suggested that all that the victim says should be believed and she along with her family should be educated about medical consequences and psychological fallouts of the incidents. It has recommended long-term therapy for the victim to come out of the trauma.

It has also cautioned police and doctors that absence of signs of struggle on a victim's body is not a sign of consent.

In case of sexual harassment at workplaces, it has recommended appropriate compensation to the victim to be paid by the company as decided by a tribunal.

Full text of Justice (retired) JS Verma Committee report

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Pentagon to Allow Women in Combat

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta will lift a long-standing ban on women serving in combat, according to senior defense officials. The ensuing administrative process could mean women will serve in front line combat roles, but not until 2016.

The move, first reported by the Associated Press, was not expected this week, although there has been a concerted effort by the Obama administration to further open up the Armed Forces to women.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously recommended in January to Secretary Panetta that the direct combat exclusion rule should be lifted.

"I can confirm media reports that the secretary and the chairman are expected to announce the lifting of the direct combat exclusion rule for women in the military," said a senior Defense Department official. "This policy change will initiate a process whereby the services will develop plans to implement this decision, which was made by the secretary of defense upon the recommendation of the Joint Chiefs of Staff."

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey sent Panetta earlier this month entitled "Women in Service Implementation Plan."
"The time has come to rescind the direct combat exclusion rule for women and to eliminate all unnecessary gender-based barriers to service."

"To implement these initiatives successfully and without sacrificing our warfighting capability or the trust of the American people, we will need time to get it right," he said in the memo, referring to the 2016 horizon.

Women have been officially prohibited from serving in combat since a 1994 rule that barred them from serving in ground combat units. That does not mean they have been immune from danger or from combat.

Adek Berry/AFP/Getty Images

As Martha Raddatz reported in 2009, women have served in support positions on and off the frontlines in Iraq and Afghanistan, where war is waged on street corners and in markets, putting them at equal risk. Hundreds of thousands of women deployed with the military to those two war zones over the past decade. Hundreds have died.

Read that 2009 report HERE.

Panetta's decision will set a January 2016 deadline for the military service branches to argue that there are military roles that should remain closed to women.

In February 2012 the Defense Department opened up 14,500 positions to women that had previously been limited to men and lifted a rule that prohibited women from living with combat units.

Panetta also directed the services to examine ways to open more combat roles to women. However the ban on direct combat positions has remained in place.

Advocates for equality in the services will be pleased. On Capitol Hill today retired Chief Master Sergeant Cindy McNally, a victim of sexual assault in the military, said placing women in combat roles would help equalize the services and actually cut down on sexual assaults, which have emerged as a major problem in the military.

"For larger solutions we need to look at integrating women completely into the armed force," she said. "Remove the combat exclusion policy. Then we will be a fully integrated force. Being able to do the job should be the standard, not whether you are male or female. I believe that as leaders we took our eye off the ball. We enabled a climate where our troops became vulnerable."

But the move is not universally popular among women in uniform who cite real-world concerns about the physical requirements that could be required to be a female front-line service member.

A female Army officer who spoke with ABC News on condition on anonymity pointed out that senior leaders feel compelled to open job positions to show how progressive they are. However this officer noted, "every female troop I know (over the age of 25) says publicly, 'Sure, open them up!' And privately, 'But not for me personally' - I know I don't have the brute strength required and I would be crushed to let down my colleagues - so no way, no thanks."

In September 2011 the Obama administration ended the "don't ask, don't tell" policy that had prohibited gays and lesbians from serving openly in the military after Congress repealed the Don't Ask, Don't Tell Law in December, 2010.

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